Scecom - Municipal damage scenarios

The municipal civil protection plan for seismic risk also includes an assessment of damage scenarios. This is a preventive assessment of the expected damage caused to exposed structures when earthquakes of different magnitudes affect the municipal area.

A strict assessment of these scenarios requires highly complex studies on a local scale and, above all, a detailed understanding of the territory, both in terms of its physical characteristics (geological, geomorphological, etc.) and in terms of the type, vulnerability, and condition of exposed assets (buildings, infrastructure, etc.).

The Civil Protection Department prepared a preliminary assessment of potential damage at the municipal level using available data (relating solely to the resident population and housing stock) and existing methodologies.

The scenario (and the resulting damages) is calculated for four reference events. The information covers the entire municipal area, without distinguishing between zones and without considering local geological effects. The events were defined by assuming four levels of macroseismic intensity (Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg scale—MCS) corresponding to return periods of 98, 475, 975, and 2,475 years, based on published hazard analyses and referenced to the MPS04 seismic hazard map (Civil Protection Order No. 3519). Data on buildings and population are taken from the 2011 Istat census, and building damage levels, ranging from D0 (no damage) to D5 (total collapse), are calculated based on the vulnerability ratings assigned to them.

The results are reported using indicators useful for the drafting of municipal civil protection plans.