1 agosto 2016

Scecom – Local damage scenarios

With a view to identifying events that may be seen as “critical” for emergency management, a specific methodology has been fine-tuned, initially drawn up and used as part of activity carried out in preparation of the Emergency Plan for Eastern Sicily and the Strait of Messina.
Software is currently available that allows definition of reference events for emergency plans on an inter-municipality scale. Implementation of this code is under study for a version of Sige dedicated to the planning stage.

Another further tool called Scecom has been fine-tuned to support the Guidelines for Municipal Emergency Planning drawn up by the Civil Protection Department. This estimates losses in the Municipality caused by reference events in this case identified on the basis of hazard analysis on a national scale, using set exceedance probability values. Scecom allows definition of the number of people involved and collapsed buildings for events on site characterised by three intensity levels that correspond to exceedance probability values of p=40%,10% and 2% in 50 years (the third intensity value is however not lower than the all-time maximum). The code is based on available figures and methodologies used in SIGE that are, therefore, coherent with analysis on a wider territorial scale.

However the idea at the base of Scecom has been to create an user-friendly computer product that, simply by inputting the name of the municipality, brings up three reference events and consequent losses. The data however refers to the municipality as a whole, without differentiation between the different areas. In the absence of more detailed studies on a local scale, the preliminary nature of the results must be borne in mind when using these data.
On the other hand, drawing up of an effective emergency plan on a municipal scale normally calls for much more detailed analysis, which is elaborated using more in-depth information.